Intelligence Failures and Escape to Tibet : 1971 India-Pakistan War

Failures of intelligence contributed in large part to the surrender of Pakistan's Military in Dec 1971 Indo-Pakistan War. From the chronology of the events, it would seem that there was an acute shortage of "strategic intelligence". Strategic intelligence would only focus on the bigger picture, the overall scenario. Intelligence failed in providing the high command with the real intentions of India, the imminence of a war and whether the decisive battles would be fought in the east or the west. The importance of strategic intelligence can be judged from the fact that force deployments are done based on it.

Here, however, we would consider a case of tactical intelligence failure (with strategic consequences in this case).   

Pakistan-Iran Petroleum Pipeline

A few thoughts on the Pakistan-Iran Gas Pipline.

During the previous years, there was talk of Iran-Pakistan Gas Pipeline. Several articles appeared in the national press regarding the impracticality and unfeasiblity of this project. I do not agree with such opinions and would try to explain the need for such a pipeline.

First of all, I was amazed to know that this gigantic project is only meant to transport natural gas to Pakistan from Iran. What about liquid petroleum products like diesel, petrol and kerosene? Tanks, aeroplanes, helicopters, trucks, vehicles, ships, submarines etc need diesel, petrol and kerosene. They do not run on gas.

Fuel is part of the military logistics and it directly affects the war waging or defence capability of a country. Its importance can be judged from many historical examples. Before the Normady Landings during Second World War (1939-1945), Allies had established oil pipelines across the English Channel to transport petroleum from UK to main Europe (France). This gigantic work was called Operation Pluto (Piplelines Under the Ocean).

Theoretical and Experimental Science

From the reactions of readers, I feel that first of all I need to explain what experimental approach in science means. Some people start imagining it in the same light as doing medical experiments on mice, pigs or monkeys. Its not about that. Here by the experimental approach I mean practical or hands-on approach using tools, equipment, machinery etc (more of applied science).

Industrial application of science or say technology has never waited for a perfect scientific theory to explain its working. When the automobiles were made, it was thought that electricity flows from the positive terminal to the negative and all electrical wiring was designed with this wrong theory but it worked and till now the same wiring is being used. Now we know that electricity always flows from negative to positive terminal.

Transfer of Technology (ToT)

Armed forces need to induct new weapon systems from time to time to keep up with the latest technology. Similarly, the civilian industry like railways etc need upgradation of its infrastructure to remain profitable or at least remain operational.

Sometimes, Transfer of Technology agreements are signed for the local production of civil engineering equipment or defence equipment.  ToTs done till now did not help us become self-sufficient because they were strictly production ToTs (not including design details).

ToT is not only the drawings of individual components or their assemblies, types of materials or alloys used, heat treatment and surface treatment details, quality certification criteria and manufacturing techniques.  Real ToT items are the details of engineering calculations for the design of individual elements. For example, we can study a case of ToT for an aircraft or a missile system (defence equipment) and some design details that are needed for such a project:

Modern Close Combat Air-to-Air Missiles in The South Asia

At first I intended to write on the balance of air power in the South Asia but feeling later that it would need a much detailed article, I switched to the topic of air to air missiles (AAMs) and restricted to India and Pakistan. Additionally AAMs carried by combat helicopters are not included here.

Air superiority over the battlefield or over a theater of war is primarily established through fighter aircrafts using air to air missiles and associated sensors and systems. Ground-based air defence systems on the other hand are designed to deny the use of airspace to the opponent. They can't establish air superiority by themselves.

What many people do not realize is that Indian Air Force today has more variety of air to air missiles than any other country on the planet. The Surface to Air missiles (SAMs) types are also varied. These missiles have been purchased from Russia, Israel, France and United Kingdom. The indigenous air to air missile program is an additional category. Variety poses its own problems for a defender. The onboard jammers (called self-protection jammers) carried by fighter jets give best results if optimised against certain threat types.

Automobile Maintenance: Engine Cooling System

Cooling system is designed to keep the engine at its optimal operating temperature. It cools down the engine when the optimal temperature is exceeded. Automobile engine is a heat engine and apparently it is a waste of energy to remove heat from an engine but it is due to the reliability requirements and metallurgical properties of the metals used in the engine construction that excessive heat has to be removed.

Engine Performance

Engine performance is directly linked to the cooling system. Engine uses a rich mixture when the engine (or coolant) is relatively cool and then moves to lean the mixture as engine heats up. If an engine is overheating, the ECU or PCM would reduce the ignition advance and/or fuel injection pulse duration, both leading to a loss of power. Engine temperature is measured indirectly through the coolant temperature.

Choice of Coolant

A coolant is also known as anti-freeze in everyday parlance but it gives an incomplete picture of its functions. A coolant should not freeze in winter when temperatures are below zero degree Celsius but it should also have a higher boiling point (at least higher than water, which is 100°C at sea level). Additionally, it should have a low vapor pressure, high specific heat capacity, high enthalpy of vaporization and very low electrical conductivity.  Pure water has a high specific heat capacity but has a high vapor pressure (unsuitable), a lower boiling point (unsuitable), high freezing point (unsuitable) and unsuitable electrical conductivity. Therefore, water is mixed with other chemical coolants like glycols to produce an acceptable mixture. Water can be used temporarily though, in case the engine develops a coolant leak on the road and you need to top up the coolant.  In Pakistan (1990s), it was common to see truck drivers (very rugged Bedford trucks) pouring fresh water into hot radiators on the road side. Not only water is not a good candidate as a coolant (except in some races) but cold water should not be poured into a hot engine.

Organizing Scientific Research

Scientific research has to be well-organised and well-coordinated to yield results. Research can be organized using different schemes or criteria. Organization helps to complete projects in time and avoid duplication of efforts. Some of these schemes of organization are given here.

1- By Approach

Scientific research or study can be carried out in three main modes. These are experimental (measurements using equipment), computational (doing simulations) and analytical (or theoretical). This type or form of research needs to be developped in Pakistan (or even in South Asia as a whole). Institutes specialised in experimental sciences are the ones that put any proposal to the test and then the realization of prototypes based on the results. Such institutes are operational in the USA, Europe and other scientifically advanced countries. For example, Center for Turbulence Research (CTR) in USA and CERFACS in France are dedicated centers for Computational Fluid Dynamics. Similarly Von Karman Institute (VKI) of Fluid Dynamics in Belgium specialises in the experimental approach in aeronautics.

Nuclear-Capable Missiles of The South Asia

Whenever there is a surface-to-surface missile test in the South Asia (India and Pakistan), the news reports read, "Nuclear capable missile has been test fired". Some links are given here;

India tests nuclear capable missile with range as far as Beijing,
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/15/us-india-missile-idUSBRE98E03L20130915
India Tests Nuclear-Capable Missile,
http://www.wsj.com/articles/india-tests-nuclear-capable-missile-1422719598

Few countries around the world openly possess nuclear weapons and they know well their working. These countries are USA, Russia, France, UK and China. The ballistic and cruise missiles with nuclear warheads that these countries built were designed from the very start to be armed with nuclear warheads. Accordingly the whole missile system and its launchers were designed to those specifications.

The Natural Boundaries

If we look at the topographic map of the world (superimpose satellite imagery on plain maps), it seems that nature itself has fixed boundaries for various races / civilizations of mankind. Geographical features like rivers, mountains, deserts and straits often form the "natural boundaries" among these races or civilizations. These natural boundaries can both be international or within the country e.g., Punjab (Pakistan) is defined by its five rivers, Valley of Swat (Pakistan) is defined by its mountains and part of Indus river has remained a boundary between Punjab and Khyer Pukhtoonkhwa (Pakistan) for a very long time.

History shows us that conflicts arise whenever man tries to change these natural boundaries. Here are some of the natural boundaries that I picked up. Do add your own observations about natural boundaries around the world. 

My Engineering Research And Publications

My area of research during PhD studies was Turbulent Boundary Layer Flows of Newtonian Fluids, which itself is a sub-branch of the Fluid Dynamics or Aerodynamics. Fluid dynamics deals with the flow of any fluid (air, water or another liquid, a gas, molten metals etc) around or inside an object of interest. Aerodynamics deals only with the flow of air around or inside an object of interest.

A fluid flow can be laminar, turbulent or transitional (in between).  In a laminar flow, a physical quantity like velocity or pressure will be the same at a point in space (x,y,z) if measured at multiple instants of time. In a turbulent flow, these physical quantities fluctuate randomly even if measured at the same point at different instants of time.

Almost all of the fluid flows of engineering interest are turbulent (while those of medical interest are mostly laminar like blood flow in a vessel). Furthermore, these flows can be classified as wall-bounded (boundary layers, wall jets, channel and pipe flows etc) and free shear flows (like jets, wakes). Boundary layer is the part of flow very near a solid boundary like the body of a car or frame of an aircraft etc.