Thursday, 2 December 2021
Pakistan's Acquisition of T129 Combat Helicopters from Turkey
The acquisition of these helicopters (30 in number according to media reports), like the US-made AH-1Z Viper, is facing bottlenecks and is yet to materialize. Like Denel Rooivalk and Mi-35, T129 has been used in combat and selected by Armies having experience of counter-insurgency like Turkey and Philippines. The rotor hub of Mi-35, with classical articulations, is not ideal for sandy environment of desert terrain. A simplified rotor hub with less articulations, like that of Westland Lynx, are less prone to develop issues in sandy atmosphere. The T129 is said to employ T800 engines made by LHTEC, a consortium of Honeywell and Rolls-Royce.
Geopolitical reasons of delays in acquisition may include the Engine upgrade for Indian Air Force Jaguar fleet. The Honeywell F125 engine was selected to replace the original Adour engine of Jaguar attack aircraft. This engine order, if finalised, is much more in numbers and finance than the Pakistani helicopter engine order with figures of 280 F125 engines mentioned in media reports. Honeywell already supplies engines for Pakistani K-8 trainer aircrafts and in theory there should be no objection on further enhancing the market of their engines. Some diplomatic maneuvering and dialogues may be needed to convince US authorities that Honeywell engines can be supplied both to India and Pakistan without having to choose one option of the two.
The acquisition of utility helicopters having the same engine as the combat helicopter facilitates the logisitics of engine and its spare parts. Examples are AH-1 Cobra and Indian Light Combat Helicopter, both sharing engines with Utility helicopters. AH-1 has the same engine as the UH-1 Huey and HAL LCH has the same engine as the HAL Dhruv helicopter.
The business of aviation engines has evolved over the time and they are increasingly being sold by Consortiums or joint ventures. Dealing with these consortia needs proper understanding, skills and knowledge. In these cases, one consortium is built or established for one engine. CFM international has Snecma (Now Safran) and Generak Electric of USA as partners, International Aero Engines (IAE) is made up of firms of Pratt and Whitney, Rolls-Royce, Japanese Aero Engines Corporation and MTU of Germany. In the combat aircraft domain, Eurojet provides engines for Eurofighter Typhoon and is made up of RR, MTU, FiatAvio and ITP of Spain. Panavia Tornado's engines were made by TurboUnion, comprising RR, MTU and FiatAvio as partners. The engines for Sukhoi Superjet-100 are made by PowerJet, a joint venture of Snecma of France and Saturn of Russia.
Prior experience of defence contracts with Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) has been that of Pakistan Air Force's upgrade of F-16 fighter fleet. Upgrade kits were purchased by Pakistan from USA and installation carried out in Turkey. One approach would be to purchase T-800 engines directly from Honeywell and fit them in helicopters in Turkey or in Pakistan.
Wednesday, 1 December 2021
Ballistic Missile Defence and Surface to Air Missiles (SAMs)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g8nH9YAHJv4
Friday, 1 October 2021
Long-Range Air to Air Missiles : Guidance, Radars and Datalink
Normally, the targets of long-range air to air missiles (LR AAM) were bigger aircrafts like AWACS, transport or aerial refuellers because of their bigger
radar size and hence they can be tracked by AI radars of fighters at around 150 km range. Also LR AAM needed a big and powerful radar on the side of firing
aircraft, implying that conventionally only big aircrafts could carry such heavy missiles.
Sunday, 29 November 2020
2008 Mumbai Attacks : Maritime Route or By Air?
The details concerning acts of terror inside the city does not need further elaboration or critique, there are numerious eye-witness accounts. The main area of investigation is journey or mode of journey of attackers from outside India till Mumbai, assuming an act by infiltrators. The official version of events is that attackers took a maritime route from Pakistani shores near Karachi to Mumbai, a distance of around 900 km.
With average boat speed of 30 km/h, the travel duration turns out to be 30 hours minimum. With no refueling en route, a fishing boat (captured one) is not expected to run or go for 30 hours. Ajmal Kasab's account mentions departure from Pakistan on 23rd November and reaching target on 26 Nov, showing unnecessary time wasted and not ideal for a perfectly-planned attack when only one day+night and six hours are needed for a journey without stops.
Further inaccuracies arise from Kasab's statement about the time of crossing into Indian waters. Major part of journey should have taken place (no choice) in Indian waters, minimum travel time is around 23 hours for a distance of around 700 km till Mumbai.
Journey overland with weapons and other items is highly unlikey given the long journey and distance. This only leaves one option, assuming that attackers were foreign intruders, and that is by air. For ten people, two Cessna 172 aircrafts are enough. Their range figures match the needed distance to be covered. With floats attached, these aircrafts can land over water.
Two aircraft possibility is strengthened by the fact that attacks took place on two (eastern and western) shores of the Mumbai peninsula. Taj Mahal Hotel being situated on the eastern shore, one aircraft landed there and other on the western shore. Where did these aircrafts go? Most likely an official cover-up. It is automatically assumed that pilots were among attackers and that low-level flying was used to avoid or delay detection by radars as much as possible. The use of other electronic identification (Transponders) manipulations also cant be discarded.
Saturday, 16 March 2019
Vindicating Mi-35 Hind Gunships of Indian Air Force
During the Kargil conflict of 1999, the performance of Mi-35 gunship helicopters (export versions of Mi-24) of the Indian Air Force was severely criticised by Indian Army. Air Force came up with many excuses but it was never fully exonerated.
Now the hot borders between India and Pakistan can possibly give a chance to vindicate (or re-vindicate) the name of Hind gunships and their crews. With timely intelligence and vigilance at borders, many planned attacks can be foiled or averted even before they are tried. But is it possible to succeed even when the plans have been compromised? It is this possibility that Indian military command is looking into.
Hind Gunship helicopters of IAF have been given the Mission 24 upgrade by IAI and they are now capable of low-level flying at night and also launching strikes at night. But the problem with helicopters is that they can't penetrate deep behind the border or LoC. Their slow speed means that their chances of escape and safe egress are not high.
An alternative is to use gunship helicopters only for destroying early warning radars of air defence and then follow the attack with strike fighters like the Su-30 Flanker. This obviously would be coordinated in time and space with air raid following shortly after the attack on the radar stations. With radars out of action, it would be very hard for PAF to see the situation in the air and guide its own planes for interception.
In this scenario, now there are two aspects. One, ensuring safety and survival of radars by either changing their position or replacing them with fake ones. It is possible that if the first phase is unsuccessful, the second phase might not follow at all.
With Mi-35 units based at Pathankot air base (according to order of battle), the likely theatre is again the LoC or its surroundings like the Working Boundary etc.
With Mi-35 units based at Pathankot air base (according to order of battle), the likely theatre is again the LoC or its surroundings like the Working Boundary etc.
Friday, 8 February 2019
Kargil War and Takht-e-Sulaiman Peaks
Ever since Pakistan's military intervention in Kargil in 1999 and the ensuing diplomatic crisis with India, there is debate in Pakistan as to who is responsible for this crisis. PM Nawaz Sharif's view is that he was unaware and General Musharraf insists that the PM knew about it and that operation was a military success but perhaps a political and diplomatic failure.
In short, Kargil has been made into a blame game between Gen Musharraf and PM
Nawaz Sharif. The real pushers who relentlessly push everybody into
doing something remain behind the scenes.
These guys dont tell others
the reason for their motivation and drive. The reasons can be completely
outrageous like bringing in Pakistan's control the second
Takht-e-Sulaiman which is near Srinagar. One Takht-e-Sulaiman (Solomon's
Peak) is near DI Khan in Pakistan and these are the two solomon peaks
in South Asia (others seem to be in Iran and Central Asia).
It is a
scared mountain which is revered by Muslims, Hindus and Buddhists alike.
The hindus call it "Shankaracharya Hill" and they have built a temple
on the top of it. This temple is protected by armed CFRP troops. The
Mughal King Jehangir and his wife Noor Jehan are said to have climbed
this hill together.
Monday, 28 January 2019
Challenges of Governing Tribal Areas : Fence And Strategy
The law and order situation in the tribal areas of Pakistan has drastically improved in the past few years, thanks to the persistent efforts of the state institutions, will of the local people and cooperation of the Afghan Govt. The challenge in such areas is always in maintaining peace and stability for a given period of time after having established it.
Prominent and experienced Afghan leader Ahmed Shah Masood realized in his later years that winning a battle is easier than bringing peace and stability in Afghanistan. This was undoubtedly one of his major disappointments in life (We hope that the current peace talks shall help realise this dream).
Prominent and experienced Afghan leader Ahmed Shah Masood realized in his later years that winning a battle is easier than bringing peace and stability in Afghanistan. This was undoubtedly one of his major disappointments in life (We hope that the current peace talks shall help realise this dream).
In both Afghanistan and frontier regions of India, different rulers have tried different techniques, from utter barbarity to cunning deceptive schemes. Nobody has tried a wall and it would be a new experiment. Pakistan must explore or re-explore all options and strategies for governing its tribal areas.
The classic British approach in these areas was to give authority and ownership to local chiefs and help them maintain law and order through their local militias. The local chief would almost always be a person who had felt the grip of British power. These Chiefs were mentally and psychologically convinced of the overwhelming British power and hence would not dare rise against them.
Pressure tactics like using Frontier Crimes Regulations (FCR) and financial blockades were tried in difficult circumstances. Another scheme which was almost permanent was that British would pay Afghanistan, who would then pay tribal chiefs. This way, the British would know who is receiving pay from Kabul.
These cunning schemes would usually result in improved law and order. The British approach towards winning loyalty and making durable alliances in India was "loyalty in self-interest", "common enemy" and "prospects of better life through superior administration". Chiefs would collaborate with British authorities in self-interest. It remains to be determined as to what exactly are the interests of the tribals in areas like Waziristan.
The classic British approach in these areas was to give authority and ownership to local chiefs and help them maintain law and order through their local militias. The local chief would almost always be a person who had felt the grip of British power. These Chiefs were mentally and psychologically convinced of the overwhelming British power and hence would not dare rise against them.
Pressure tactics like using Frontier Crimes Regulations (FCR) and financial blockades were tried in difficult circumstances. Another scheme which was almost permanent was that British would pay Afghanistan, who would then pay tribal chiefs. This way, the British would know who is receiving pay from Kabul.
These cunning schemes would usually result in improved law and order. The British approach towards winning loyalty and making durable alliances in India was "loyalty in self-interest", "common enemy" and "prospects of better life through superior administration". Chiefs would collaborate with British authorities in self-interest. It remains to be determined as to what exactly are the interests of the tribals in areas like Waziristan.
Is cross-border smuggling and drug trafficking included in their interests? Historically most rulers have given them the concession of cross-border trade, free electricity, no taxes etc. According to international media reports, the business of drugs in FATA continued uninterrupted under General Zia-Ul-Haq during the whole Soviet-Afghan War (1980-1988).
Now the "common enemy" approach. It happened in the Mogul era in India that many cities and large areas would become victim of robber assaults. The villagers and the Mogul kings would give the control of that city to the British in the hope that they would defeat the robbers. People would collaborate with the British because there was a common enemy to be defeated. Now we come to the superior administration aspect. It happened during several famines in India that people would look towards the British to get them out of the disastrous situations. They believed in the superior administration of the British.
For outright elimination of rebels in the frontier regions, British were helped by Mad Fakirs or ascetics who preached Jihad against the British. This way, the Govt would eliminate hundreds of rebels in a short time.
The task of controlling turbulent tribes is indeed difficult. The Moghul King of India, Aurangzeb Alamgir was given the same task by his father, Shah Jahan. Aurangzeb followed rigorous Islam whereas his father and elder brother had secular views. In 1647, Aurangzeb was sent to Afghanistan to prove his leadership and princely skills. He had to fight Uzbek, Hazara and other tribes and persians in Kandhar. Shah Jahan was perhaps sure that Aurangzeb would fail to subdue the turbulent tribes of Afghanistan. Nobody expected Aurangzeb to get out of the Afghan quagmire.
His approach was sheer demonstration of chivalry, spirituality and sacrificing the unimportant or untenable ground. During a battle with Uzbeks, right on the battlefield, he dismounted from his horse and started to offer his evening prayers. For his coolness under fire, he earned the respect of friends and foes alike. After campaigns in Afghanistan, Prince Aurangzeb was recognized as the coming man.
For further reading,
Rulers of India : Aurangzeb, Stanley Lane-Poole, Edited by W.W. Hunter, Oxford, 1901.
Now the "common enemy" approach. It happened in the Mogul era in India that many cities and large areas would become victim of robber assaults. The villagers and the Mogul kings would give the control of that city to the British in the hope that they would defeat the robbers. People would collaborate with the British because there was a common enemy to be defeated. Now we come to the superior administration aspect. It happened during several famines in India that people would look towards the British to get them out of the disastrous situations. They believed in the superior administration of the British.
For outright elimination of rebels in the frontier regions, British were helped by Mad Fakirs or ascetics who preached Jihad against the British. This way, the Govt would eliminate hundreds of rebels in a short time.
The task of controlling turbulent tribes is indeed difficult. The Moghul King of India, Aurangzeb Alamgir was given the same task by his father, Shah Jahan. Aurangzeb followed rigorous Islam whereas his father and elder brother had secular views. In 1647, Aurangzeb was sent to Afghanistan to prove his leadership and princely skills. He had to fight Uzbek, Hazara and other tribes and persians in Kandhar. Shah Jahan was perhaps sure that Aurangzeb would fail to subdue the turbulent tribes of Afghanistan. Nobody expected Aurangzeb to get out of the Afghan quagmire.
His approach was sheer demonstration of chivalry, spirituality and sacrificing the unimportant or untenable ground. During a battle with Uzbeks, right on the battlefield, he dismounted from his horse and started to offer his evening prayers. For his coolness under fire, he earned the respect of friends and foes alike. After campaigns in Afghanistan, Prince Aurangzeb was recognized as the coming man.
For further reading,
Rulers of India : Aurangzeb, Stanley Lane-Poole, Edited by W.W. Hunter, Oxford, 1901.
Wednesday, 10 October 2018
Religious Extremism and Economic Development
If we look at the
international news, dozens of Islamic countries around the world are
fighting extremist movements and armed struggles for supremacy. From
Nigeria in Africa to Philippines in Asia, dozens of states are locked in a
struggle against these non-state actors. The areas of insurgency or
areas most affected by extremism are those where there is virtually no
economic development. Alternatively, it can also be concluded that
“international monetary agencies” don't allow any industrial
development in such areas.
Experts have already
pointed out such areas and they include Pakistani ex-tribal zone
(especially Waziristan), Southern Afghanistan, Eastern Syria, North
Somalia, Yemen, North-West of Iraq, Fezzan Libya, North-East of
Nigeria, Eastern Turkey. Some may also include Xinjiang (China) in
this list.
The Khyber-Pukhtoonkhwa
(KPK) province of Pakistan is also suffering from economic depression
due the same reason. The industrial development that was done in KPK
was due to moderate and progressive elite of the province.
An article published in
the Daily Statesman, Peshawar on 16 May 2005 about Muhammad Amir Khan
Hoti noted, “Aside from politics, he also rendered services for the
uplift of NWFP as an industrialist. He can be rightly termed as the
"founder of the Industrial base" in the province. It was he
who established a sugar mill in the province in the early years of
the creation of Pakistan. He also had the honour of becoming the host
of the President of the World Bank Mr. McNamara at his farmhouse in
Chail Village on the Mardan-Takhtbahi road. It was in this meeting,
that McNamara extended loan for the establishment of a paper mill at
Charsadda, which got prominence as the Pakistan Paper
Corporation (PPC). In this way, Col (Retd) Mohammad Amir Khan laid the
foundations for industries in his province”.
The traditional approach
of experts on the subject has been to address the root causes of
extremism which is lack of employment, frustration and lack of
political freedom among other factors.
Lack of economic progress
is not the only factor which promotes extremism. It is also the
extreme frustration of the youth that leads to it. In the recent
past, Saudi Arabia has been criticized internationally for not
providing any outlets to its youth leading to their extremist
tendencies. Prince Muhammad Bin Salman is conscious of this issue and
is planning to provide outlets to the youth with an entire city
dedicated to it.
Political freedom also
contributes towards control of extremism. Thats why international
geopolitical experts have been advising Bachar Al-Assad of Syria to
allow freedom for politics in his country. While the lack of
political freedom can be addressed, the economic development is not
easy to achieve because it is like a vicious circle.
The problem is that
nobody wants to invest in areas affected by extremism and the
internationally powerful monetary groups don't usually authorize
development in such areas until and unless people change and adapt
themselves. We see that Northern Afghanistan is developing at a faster
pace (with oil refineries and road networks to Central Asia States
etc) compared to the Southern Afghanistan and the reason is that
Northern Afghanistan is moderate compared to the South.
Education or Re-Education
seems to be the only salvation.
Monday, 20 August 2018
The Sagacity and Tolerance of The Great Britain
Many nations from Europe and Asia (Including Arabs) tried to colonise India. They all failed, except the British. The French, The Dutch, the Danish, the Portugese all Failed. The British weapons were not just the sword and gun, they also won the hearts and minds of the people.
The British never amputated Indians (cut off the arms or legs or noses or ears) as opposed to the local rulers including Tipu Sultan. Tipu used to cut off the noses of his own people for commiting xyz crimes. All local rulers used physical punishments which were close to butchery.
For the first time in the history of India, British introduced tolerance and relatively humane punishments like hanging to death which does not involve bloodshed. For other serious crimes, they started Kala Pani (Andaman Islands) which was an overseas prison for Indians. They spent a huge fortune on these prisons but did not execute the prisoners. Only in 1857 and a few such serious uprisings, they blew up people from guns but even those officers did not go to senior ranks (except one or two cases).
As compared to other nations, the British never insulted the Religions or the places of worship. When Sikhs occupied the cities like Peshawar and Lahore etc, they dishonoured the Mosques. Like Sikhs, other European nations did not show tolerance for different religions of India.
The Dutch (Geert Wilders and his party in particular) seem to be repeating the same mistakes that they committed in India a few centuries ago by allowing the caricatures of the Prophet Mohammad (PBUH). They are making it much harder for the moderates among the Muslims to continue their struggle against extremism.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/973579/anti-islam-geert-wilders-party-for-freedom-drawing-mohammed-competition-netherlands
The Northamptonshire Regiment on the march in Waziristan in 1936. The British fought dozens of battles in Pakistan's tribal areas like Waziristan and other places. These battles were tough and both sides admired the CHIVALRY that existed in those times.
The British even offered medical aides to the injured Pathan fighters at the end of the battles because they admired them.
The Northamptonshire Regiment on the march in Waziristan in 1936. The British fought dozens of battles in Pakistan's tribal areas like Waziristan and other places. These battles were tough and both sides admired the CHIVALRY that existed in those times.
The British even offered medical aides to the injured Pathan fighters at the end of the battles because they admired them.
The maximum punishment that British would give to the tribals was to
raze and destroy thier villages, take away their cattle and other
property. This was cruel but not barbaric. They did not execute women
and children. They did not attack innocent civilians.
The British even ensured that the tribals would know that "Army is Coming". This way the villages would be deserted by the tribals and the Army would not have to fight elderly, women or sick or children. They allowed people the time to go away and hide in the mountains. The Army would then proceed to either burn or destroy the houses.
This was the reason that the British ruled India for more than 200 years but other European nations could not rule even for a few years.
The British even ensured that the tribals would know that "Army is Coming". This way the villages would be deserted by the tribals and the Army would not have to fight elderly, women or sick or children. They allowed people the time to go away and hide in the mountains. The Army would then proceed to either burn or destroy the houses.
This was the reason that the British ruled India for more than 200 years but other European nations could not rule even for a few years.
Tuesday, 31 July 2018
Economics : Pakistan's Trading Speciality
Different countries of the world have their trading specialities, which are their major exports and earnings of foreign exchange in addition to overall better financial situation.
Switzerland specialises in Banking sector and gives much better facilities to account holders (like secrecy) than other countries. It is major earning item for Switzerland in addition to tourism. Tourism also brings foreign exchange. If a tourist comes to Pakistan and spends Rs. 50,000 on his stay, food, transport and other activities, he contributes to Pakistan's economy.
Panama is a small country of central America. It gives very concessional rates to oil tankers and cruise ships for registration and thats why the majority of cruise ships and tankers are registered in Panama. Thats Panama's earning speciality.
India made Information Technology (IT) as its speciality in 1990s and reaped huge economic benefits from this investment in human resources. Technical human resources which can be sent abroad for jobs contribute financially to their countries. Technical specialists are therefore an economic assset. India has also been promoting tourism in the recent years in addition to liberal economic policies at home like the end of Licence Raj, where only selected people were granted Licences for sugar and other mills. Medical treatment facilities is another speciality that India has developped in the recent past. Patients from the whole South Asian Region go to India for medical treatment.
There are many other countries that have favbourable tax schemes for industries called tax havens. They attract investment in shape of "off-shore companies".
Engineering research and development is a trading speciality of some advanced countries like France and Germany. University and Industry teams get contracts for research from customers all over the world.
In the automobile sector, Japan specialises in cars upto 300 horsepower with 4 or 6-cylinder engines. Germany specialises in high-end , more powerful vehicles with 6,8 and 10 cylinder engines. Ferrari and Lamborghini of Italy specialise in super cars with 12-cylinder engines.
Sports bikes are trading speciality of Japan and Italy. Computers and its accessories are trading speciality of USA. Similiary digital cameras are mostly made in Japan.
Launching satellites into space is the trading speciality of few countries including India and China. Making satellites is however the speciality of USA and Europe. Similar is the case of aerospace sector and military hardware and this list can go on.
Pakistan's new government needs to decide on the trading specialities of Pakistan, invest in them and promote them in the international market to get out of the vicious cylce of "Failure and Bail-Out from IMF/World Bank".
Thursday, 17 May 2018
Pakistan's Politics : Tips on Winning Elections for PTI
Money Laundering, Imran Khan and Nawaz Sharif / PML
No Falls, No Accidents
Imran Khan needs
to become careful in what he says about money laundering and illegal money transfers. He is doing PML/Nawaz Sharif's publicity
himself. He is doing the Election campaign for Nawaz Sharif or PML and digging a
pit for himself by vehemently opposing money laundering.
Remember that many organizations, religious groups and Jihadi groups etc use illegal money
transfers and money laundering techniques to gather financial
resources. These entities would prefer
Nawaz Sharif. They would oppose with all their force, the rise of Imran
Khan, who is against corruption and money laundering. This is ONE of the most important reasons that PTI has been losing Elections in Pakistan.
It needs to be analysed in full detail as to what strategy should be
adopted but one thing is clear that the non-stop opposition to Money
Laundering should be stopped immediately and some clever strategy adopted so that
all those Jihadi groups are not totally against you before Elections.
No Falls, No Accidents
May 2013...Imran Khan fell from stage
in a rally just before Elections. Geo News showed, in an exclusive
coverage, a badly shaken Imran Khan with head injuries (use google to
see the images). This automatically cancelled his psychological fitness.
Every emotional shock needs a new psychological exam to find out if any
'post-shock' conditions or trauma exist.
If it was an accident, then it was most unfortunate. If it had been arranged to get sympathies of
the people, then it was the biggest blunder that Imran Khan made. If
this advisor is still around Imran Khan, he should be immediately fired.
For this year Elections, NO ACCIDENTS, NO FALLS, NO HEAD INJURIES.
This is like what happens to Air Force pilots who eject from their
falling aircrafts. They have to face serious psychological follow-up
before they can fly again.
Wednesday, 16 May 2018
Rockets As Sacred Weapons
Tragic news from the
Middle East. Dozens Palestinian protesters killed and thousands
injured in clashes. This happened at the occasion of opening of US
Embassy in Jerusalem. The issue of Jerusalem is itself a political
issue but the scale of causalities shows that it is not just related
to the opening of US embassy and it proves the anger of Israeli
authorities that has resulted from the incessant rocket attacks by
the armed groups of Palestinians. In the previous years, thousand of
rockets were fired into Israel from Palestinian areas. Israel had to
develop 'Iron Dome' anti-missile system to cope with this threat.
This use of rockets has to be analysed in its historical and
religious background.
We can start with the use
of rockets by the Arabs. From 633 AD to 750 AD, the Arabs overcame
almost all local powers including Persia, Byzantium (partially) and
conquered North Africa, Iberia and Central Asia. In these wars, they
used fire arrows to disrupt enemy formations and concentrations.
These fire arrows also took the form of rockets. Rocket seems to
have gained a reputation of “sacred weapon of victory” among Arab
armies.
Monday, 7 May 2018
PTI: Winning Elections in Pakistan
Coming into power in
Pakistan is a delicate exercise requiring victory in a two-front
battle. Both the domestic voters of Pakistan and the national and
international stake-holders in Pakistan have to be convinced. The stake-holders may not all be on friendly terms with
each other but they all have to be satisfied. This means that winning
more votes does not automatically mean coming into power. So here are
some elements of the two-pronged strategy for securing votes and
coming into power.
Decide a Stronghold
PPP has Sindh as its
stronghold, PML has Punjab as its stronghold and Balochistan is
stronghold of Baloch nationalist parties. PTI can make KPK as its
stronghold (which would mean more investment and more effort in KPK)
so as to get roots in one place. Winning a few provincial seats in
all provinces does not mean anything. You have to be strong at least
in one province. By deciding a stronghold, the party would remain
rooted and ever-present in national politics. It would then
concentrate ONLY on winning national assembly seats in the rest of
Pakistan.
Saturday, 21 April 2018
Imran Khan, PTI and Jinnah
Just happened to read this book (in French language) of the author Francois Kersaudy called Lord Mountbatten and published in 2006. It is mentioned in this book that in 1947 Lord Mountbatten (The last British Viceroy to India) had to meet all Indian leaders about leaving the India to local parties and he arranged meetings with Gandhi, Nehru and Jinnah among others. The (intelligence) profile of Mr Muhammad Ali Jinnah is said to be like this (Page 242 on 2015 edition of the book):
"Jinnah represents Muslims but he drinks Whisky and Champagne, he eats pork, he smokes all day along, his knowledge of Quran is very limited and he rarely goes to the mosque".
It was completely new for me, although not shocking. I thought that nowadays in Pakistan, in certain govt departments, you have to be much better than Jinnah in religious obligations to get a junior post and yet he is the founder of Pakistan and father of the nation. This also clarifies whether Jinnah wanted an Islamic state or a secular one. The other question is that why Pakistan's state has been hiding these details about Jinnah? I respected Jinnah from my boyhood and still respect him, these details did not change my respect for him (Although many people may do otherwise and perhaps this is the reason for hiding such details).
Now for PTI and Imran Khan posing as second Jinnah of Pakistan, is it good for Imran Khan to compare himself to Jinnah? I shall say that times have changed in Pakistan, people are more religious now and Imran khan has to stop comparing himself to Jinnah, same is true for the followers of PTI, stop comparison with Jinnah if you want to win votes in elections. It is sure that PTI lacks people who are experts in history.
PTI : Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf
It was completely new for me, although not shocking. I thought that nowadays in Pakistan, in certain govt departments, you have to be much better than Jinnah in religious obligations to get a junior post and yet he is the founder of Pakistan and father of the nation. This also clarifies whether Jinnah wanted an Islamic state or a secular one. The other question is that why Pakistan's state has been hiding these details about Jinnah? I respected Jinnah from my boyhood and still respect him, these details did not change my respect for him (Although many people may do otherwise and perhaps this is the reason for hiding such details).
Now for PTI and Imran Khan posing as second Jinnah of Pakistan, is it good for Imran Khan to compare himself to Jinnah? I shall say that times have changed in Pakistan, people are more religious now and Imran khan has to stop comparing himself to Jinnah, same is true for the followers of PTI, stop comparison with Jinnah if you want to win votes in elections. It is sure that PTI lacks people who are experts in history.
PTI : Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf
Thursday, 28 December 2017
Pakistan and Shia-Sunni Alliances of the Muslim World
Here the word “Alliance”
would not be used in its true diplomatic meaning; instead the
“agreement” and “alliance” shall be used interchangeably.
Soon after her creation
in 1947, Pakistan faced conflicts on its borders with Afghanistan
(over Durand Line), India, and in Kashmir. Afghanistan was not ready
to admit the Durand Line as the boundary between the two countries.
To face these challenges, Pakistan needed strong alliances. In early
1950s, Pakistan started a long-term relationship with USA and Prime
Minister Liaquat Ali Khan made a historic visit to USA. This forced
Afghanistan to seek aid from the Soviet Union. Due to Kashmir issue,
India did not have cordial relations with Pakistan and therefore,
India too found itself inclined towards the Soviet Union. Thus both
India and Afghanistan found a common ground for cooperation.
In
1961-62 Daud Khan was prime minister of Afghanistan when the
Pashtunistan movement (or rather crisis) reached its pinnacle.
Tensions rose so high that Pakistan closed the Afghan Transit route.
Pakistan Air Force launched air strikes into the FATA (Federally Administrated Tribal Areas) and also
arranged for a mega show of firepower in Jamrud in 1962. Royal Afghan
Air Force was quite well-equipped in the 1961-62 but surprisingly
they did not come to the help of FATA tribes (or not in substantial
numbers). The crisis situation ended through the mediation of Shah of
Iran between Pakistan and Afghanistan.
Thursday, 2 November 2017
Rohingyas, Myanmar and Pakistan
Before the arrival of
Islam in the Indian sub-continent, the main religions in the region
were Hinduism and Buddhism. In those times, Buddhism was burgeoning
and gathering mass acceptance as shown by the rampant statues and
monasteries in Bamian (Afghanistan), Swat and Taxila (Pakistan).
Hindu leaders must have been seriously concerned about the rise of
Buddhism. The first major clean-up operation against Buddhism in the
India in recorded history is the attack by the Hun barbarians. They
damaged and destroyed Buddhist monasteries but damage to the Hindu
temples is not mentioned to be excessive which alludes to the
possibility of Huns acting as mercenaries. The very fact that
Buddhists had taken refuge in far away and hardly-accessible valleys
like Bamian and Swat shows that they were facing a threat of
survival.
After the arrival of
Islam in the Indian sub-continent, no major confrontation occured
between Muslims and Buddhists. They could have been potential allies
too. The Buddhists remained safe in their far-flung sanctuaries of
Tibet, Sikkim, Myanmar, Bhutan and Sri Lanka. Things started to change during
the British East India Company's colonization of India. Myanmar,
Tibet and Sikkim were all invaded. In 1772, Bhutanese and British
troops clashed in Bengal with a treaty signed in 1774. Sikkim was
perhaps the only Indian state with Buddhism as state religion. In the
Sikkim expedition of 1888, Tibet lost its suzerainty over Sikkim.
Later on Sikkim was annexed into India. Myanmar's Buddhist kings had
many border issues with British India and in a series of wars
starting in 1824, they lost almost all of their country to the
British East India Company. Buddhist kingdoms were faced with a
survival threat.
Monday, 28 August 2017
Sacred Corners of the Indian Triangle
If we imagine the Indian
peninsula as a giant traingle, then its three corners would be
Kashmir to the North-West, Arunachal Pradesh to the North-East and
the Southern Cap as the third corner. Historically the Hindus of
India have imparted great importance to these three corners as if
these were “the sacred corners of India”. Indians have tried
throughout the ages to keep these three sacred corners as independent
territories. The Muslim conquerors of India (both Delhi kings and
Mughals) mainly concentrated on the Northern plains. Mughals did
annex Kashmir but the other two corners remained out of reach for
them. Emperor Aurangzeb Alamgir (ruled from 1658 to 1707) led
military expeditions in the South and in the North-East and brought
(temporarily) huge tracts under his control but at that time the
Mahrattas had established a barrier in the Central-India against any
expansion to the Southern most tip. Let us examine this “sacred
corners theory” in a little detail.
Wednesday, 26 July 2017
Winning Wars Through Miracles
I was in 7th
grade in 1991 when the first Gulf war started. Allied air forces were
targeting Iraqi military with all their precision guided munitions in
conjunction with latest target acquisition systems. I was traveling
to Peshawar in public transport and heard people discussing the war.
They were saying confidently that due to the shrine of Hazrat Abdul Qadir
Jilani RA in Baghdad (Iraq), the US and Allied bombs are not
exploding. They believed in the miracles. Later on, we came to learn
that Iraqi military has been expelled from Kuwait and now Allies are
going into Iraq itself and that Iraqis have suffered serious losses.
People of low development have shown such behaviour in almost all
parts of the world, regardless of their religion. Belief in miracles,
witchcraft and superstition induce naive and credulous men to become
cannon fodder. A General does not depend upon miracles for success of
his campaign. He calculates and plans for everything that he needs to
have before going to the battle. One reason that the mutinies and
numerous armed movements of the Indian Muslims against the British
power in India (1757-1947) did not succeed is that calculating and
experienced British Generals were fighting against locals led by
priests (or baba), pirs and fakirs (a hermit) who relied upon
miracles and divine intervention for success. Lets take a tour of the
military history for some case studies.
Kamikaze Winds of
Japan
The China-Japan enmity is
perhaps as old as the civilization of China itself. Towards the end
of the 13th century, when the Mongol prince Kublai Khan
had become the King of China, he prepared an expedition against
Japan. A great naval fleet was sent towards Japan but due to strong
storm winds, the whole Chinese fleet was dispersed and Japan could
not be conquered. Interesting, this happened once again, hurricanes
preventing the Chinese fleet from landing on Japan. Japanese called
these as “heaven-sent or Kamikaze” brought by the God of Wind.
Later on during the Second World War, the name Kamikaze was given to
the pilots flying suicide missions against US Naval fleet, giving
them a divine aspect. It was of course a desperate measure and could
not turn the tide of the war.
Wednesday, 14 June 2017
Prospects of Civil Nuclear Explosions in Pakistan
On 18 May 1974, India
conducted its first nuclear test in the Rajhistan desert which was
labeled as peaceful explosion (for civil applications). In short,
nuclear explosive was tested as a super dynamite for mega projects of
the civil engineering. Prior to the test of India, almost all nuclear
powers had considered using nuclear explosions for civil engineering
mega projects. With the adoption of Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty
(CTBT), all nuclear testing has been banned, whether military or
civil. As both India and Pakistan have still not signed/ratified the
CTBT, they can at least theoretically conduct nuclear explosions for
peaceful purposes.
Another international
treaty to consider is the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). In fact
Article 5 of NPT allows peaceful nuclear explosions (for adhering
countries without nuclear arms) [1]. But as India had not signed NPT,
it had to face sanctions. Although announced as a peaceful test, it
triggered a strong reaction from the nuclear states. Soon after the
Indian test of 18 May 1974, nuclear states formed Nuclear Suppliers
Group (NSG) which was initially known as London Club. NSG aimed to
control and regulate the export of nuclear-related technologies.
Nuclear explosions can be
used to make artificial lakes for hydroelectric power stations, to
blow open Thar coal mines, Iron ore mines in Swat and many other
mineral mines in Balochistan. They can be used to build deep sea
ports on the Sindh / Balochistan coast and also to build large canals
from the coast to the Inland cities. These canals can
also be linked to inland submarine bases for the Navy submarine
fleet. Belgium is known for its long canals from the coast to the
inland cities like Brugge. During the WW-I, German Navy used this
canal system to hide its submarines in the inland bases of Belgium.
Friday, 5 May 2017
Tackling Extremism in Pakistan
The turbulent and
tumultuous history of the Indian subcontinent has given it unique
characteristics. From the numerous invasions from the North, the
religious movements, conflicts between races and religions, the
colonization by the British, the uprising against the British in
1857, and the freedom movement of 1947 to India-Pakistan wars, the
Kashmir issue, the Soviet Afghan war, and the recent US/NATO Afghan
war, all have left their marks and have shaped the society in a way
where the extremist behaviour is dominant. Pakistan, being
financially and militarily weaker than the bigger India, is more
prone to extremism. Lets look at some of the elements that contribute
to the promotion of extremism in Pakistani society and then the
strategy to contain it. Although extremism starts right from the
cradle, lets start with the educational institutions.
Syllabus of Government
Schools and Colleges
The educational syllabus
in the government sector schools and colleges of Pakistan does not
promote thinking, analysis, brain-storming and research. Memorizing
and cramming remain the main mode of learning. Apart from a syllabus
that curbs the creativity and discourages unbiased analysis, the
students are beaten into submission through physical punishments.
Physical punishments in government schools are so rampant (at least
they were in 1990s) that they look almost legal. It is lamentable
that such illegal practices are routine in the institutions where the
future generations of Pakistan are educated and trained. Some
physical punishments were specifically designed to hurt the
self-esteem of students. This educational milieu creates a mind-set
which is susceptible to develop the extremist tendencies. Social
workers, philanthropists, journalists and educationists regularly
evoke this issue on different media platforms from time to time but
nothing concrete is done. In fact nobody has seriously analysed as to
why this is happening. Is it financially beneficial?
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