Thursday 28 December 2017

Pakistan and Shia-Sunni Alliances of the Muslim World




Here the word “Alliance” would not be used in its true diplomatic meaning; instead the “agreement” and “alliance” shall be used interchangeably.

Soon after her creation in 1947, Pakistan faced conflicts on its borders with Afghanistan (over Durand Line), India, and in Kashmir. Afghanistan was not ready to admit the Durand Line as the boundary between the two countries. To face these challenges, Pakistan needed strong alliances. In early 1950s, Pakistan started a long-term relationship with USA and Prime Minister Liaquat Ali Khan made a historic visit to USA. This forced Afghanistan to seek aid from the Soviet Union. Due to Kashmir issue, India did not have cordial relations with Pakistan and therefore, India too found itself inclined towards the Soviet Union. Thus both India and Afghanistan found a common ground for cooperation.

In 1961-62 Daud Khan was prime minister of Afghanistan when the Pashtunistan movement (or rather crisis) reached its pinnacle. Tensions rose so high that Pakistan closed the Afghan Transit route. Pakistan Air Force launched air strikes into the FATA (Federally Administrated Tribal Areas) and also arranged for a mega show of firepower in Jamrud in 1962. Royal Afghan Air Force was quite well-equipped in the 1961-62 but surprisingly they did not come to the help of FATA tribes (or not in substantial numbers). The crisis situation ended through the mediation of Shah of Iran between Pakistan and Afghanistan.
In 1973, the ex-Prime Minister Daud Khan came to power in Afghanistan after overthrowing the king Zahir Shah. It was feared that there would be a re-surge of Afghan nationalism. According to the regional specialists, Pakistan promoted fundamentalist and extremist Islam in Afghanistan to counter the rise of the Afghan nationalism. This led to the radicalisation of the Sunni faction in Afghanistan. When these radical Sunni factions tried to seize power, the Shia factions were forced to seek support from Iran.

When Taliban consolidated their grip on the power in Afghanistan in early 1990s, they emerged as hard-line Sunni group, which was not convenient for Iran. Therefore, when the NATO coalition entered into war with Taliban in Afghanistan, Iran provided all support she could to the NATO allies for overthrowing the Taliban government in 2001. The present Afghan government, which is fighting insurgency against Taliban, also sees Pakistan as sponsor and patron of the Taliban movement in Afghanistan. Therefore, due to Taliban, Pakistan and Iran do not enjoy a very cordial relationship. This also means that Iran and Afghanistan have common ground for cooperation. Thus we see Russia, India, Iran and Afghanistan forming a block.

In 1950s, Saudi Arabia had established a deep relationship with USA with agreements for oil exploration and extraction. Egypt, on the other had, was in the grip of Arab nationalism and led by Gamal Abdul Nasser, nationalised the Suez Canal in 1956. This led to a war with France, United Kingdom and Israel. Israel enjoyed good relations with USA, France and UK and thus both Syria and Egypt joined the camp of Soviet Union for military hardware and other assistance. 

In the early 1960s, the revolutionary regimes of Egypt (Gamal Abdul Nasser) and Syria promoted Arab nationalism. They combined Egypt and Syria into United Arab Republic (UAR) on 1st Feb 1958. Unfortunately, Saudi Arabia and UAR had different alliances, Saudi Arabia being in the USA-UK axis and UAR with Soviet Union. To counter Arab nationalism and Arab Socialism, regimes of the neighbouring states promoted fundamentalist and extremist religious groups in those countries (like Ikhwan or Muslim Brotherhood). 

When Egypt signed a separate peace agreement with Israel under the President Anwar Saadat in March 1979 (Camp David Agreement), Egypt slowly began to join the USA and Sunni block but Syria remained attached to Soviet Union (today Russia). Therefore, we can add Syria to the block of Russia, India, Iran and Afghanistan.

Till 1979, Iran was ruled by Shah of Iran, Raza Shah. He had strong ties with USA and therefore with Pakistan and Turkey. Agreements on mega development projects like RCD (Regional Cooperation for Development) were concluded between these three countries and good progress was being made in various fields.  Therefore, until the Islamic revolution in Iran in 1979, the power struggle was mainly between pro-socialist and pro-capitalist sides or between the nationalist and radical religious parties.

After the Islamic revolution of Iran in 1979, the new regime did not have cordial relations with USA due to her alleged support to the Shah of Iran. Soon after the revolution in 1980, Iran faced a war with Iraq which was to last till 1987-88. During this war, Iraq was supported by the Sunni block and Iran had to turn to Soviet Union for the supply of military hardware. Thus a very clear grouping was formed. Shia block allied to Soviet Union and Sunni Block allied to USA.

When Saddam Hussein (President of Iraq) invaded Kuwait in August 1990, he lost support of Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Sunni block, except Jordan. The Allied Forces were deployed in Saudi Arabia prior to the start of hostilities. As a revenge, Saddam Hussein gave practically all his air force and other military hardware to Iran when his defeat became obvious.

Now lets see where does the Turkey stand in all this. During Iran-Iraq war of 1980-1988, Turkey supported Iraq. Iran had destroyed the oil terminals of Iraq in the Persian Gulf and Iraq had to export its crude oil through over-land pipelines. One pipeline crossed the Syria to the Mediterranean port of Banian. Syria, while siding with Iran, shut down the pipeline. Iraq had to build another pipeline passing through Turkey to the Mediterranean port of Ceyhan. For military supplies, Iraq used the Jordanian port of Akaba or Aqabaa.

The territory of Kurds spans four countries, namely, Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Turkey. In the recent years, Turkey was shaken by acts of terrorism that were linked to Kurdish separatist movements, thus bringing Turkey in a clash with Kurds. Kurds on the other hand are fighting ISIS (Islamic State) in Iraq. Because ISIS is a Sunni organization, the Kurds are on good terms with Iran. Historically too, the Kurds were forced to seek alliance with Iran. Saddam Hussein had launched several military expeditions against Kurd tribes when he was in power in Iraq, pushing these tribes to seek support and protection in Iran. Therefore, we see that due to Kurd issue and ISIS, Turkey and Iran do not enjoy ideal relationship. We can also put Turkey in the Block of USA, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Egypt and Jordan.

The ISIS is also fighting the regime of Bashar-al-Asad in Syria. Syria has good relations with Iran and both of them have alliance with Russia. Because ISIS has been declared as a terrorist organization, Russia has been able to convince the world community that it is more important to fight ISIS. Russian Air Force has provided much needed air support to the Syrian Army.

The Shia-Sunni divide is also obvious among the Jihadi groups. During the decade 1979-1988, Afghans rose in rebellion against the Soviet and Communist troops of Afghan government but even this struggle was marred by religious schism between Shia (like Wahdat) and Sunni Mujahideen groups (several groups). Even the Palestine is not free from this schism. Sunnis and Shias have their own freedom fighters in the shape of Hizbollah, Hamas, Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) etc. With PLO signing a peace agreement with Israel for the establishment of Palestinian Authority under the leadership of Yassir Arafat, Iran and Hizbollah remained the only opposition to Israel in the region. This gave both Saudi Arabia and Israel a common ground against Iran.

In the past few years, the Sunni alliance has lost much ground in Europe and USA because the terrorism there has not been done by Shias. They have gained sympathies in the west and that's why both Syria and Iran have got the much needed breathing space when the noose was tightening around them.

Despite an open participation in the Sunni Alliance, Pakistan is on particularly good terms with its own Shia population. The Shia tribes of western Khyber Pukhtoonkhwa (KPK), namely, Bangash and Orakzai, Ismaili community of Gilgit-Baltistan and Hazara of Balochistan have good relationship with Pakistan's establishment. The Hazaras of Balochistan have been targeted in the recent past by the Baloch nationalist elements for their cooperation with Pakistan Army and other Agencies. General Musa Khan, C-in-C of Pakistan Army, was from the Hazara tribe of Balochistan and they continue to occupy important posts in the Armed Forces of Pakistan.

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