Great Game of the South Asia

Recently (June 2015) news reports circulated in the media that Indian Armed Forces have launched an operation in Myanmar (formerly Burma) against the insurgents of the North-East India. The insurgency in the North-Eastern India is not a new affair. It is now several decades old. The roots of this problem do not seem to be clear to the younger generation. The origin of this insurgency dates back to the 1800s.

North-Eastern India was comprised of an independent kingdom (of Ahoms) and other small kingdoms (like Manipur) till Nineteenth Century, largely comprising of the tribes of Burmese origin. In the period 1819-1820, Burma formally annexed this territory.

In the aftermath of the First Anglo-Burmese War of 1824-1825, this large tract of the territory was annexed by the British and then administered by their Government of India. This was the greater Assam province. When independence was granted to India in 1947, this territory was not given back to Burma. Burma itself got independence in 1948 when the British had already left India.

While the official stand of the Myanmar about this area is unknown to me, the Indian Army operation shows that insurgent groups probably had bases (and therefore sympathies) in Myanmar. This (North-Eastern India) is an oil-rich area and the oil industry started working here well before independence of 1947. In fact, Asia’s first oil refinery was established here. Since 1947, Government of India has been trying to fully integrate this area into the Indian Union, to strengthen its hold, establish peace and curb the insurgency. This area has now been subdivided into the seven sister states of Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Manipur, Mizoram, Meghalaya, Nagaland and Tripura.

This area borders Bangladesh, which was East Pakistan till 1971. In 1960s, India repeatedly blamed Pakistan for helping insurgents from its Eastern wing with arms among other things. Whether true or not, it must have seemed to India that the existence of East Pakistan is not favorable to curbing of insurgency. A plan was engineered to put an end to this source of support and then executed in 1971. India supported Bengali insurgents of Mukti Bahini and East Pakistan became Bangladesh. The support to Bengali separatists has been acknowledged by the Indian leaders. This is like “If you help my insurgent, I help yours”.  From the 1972 onwards, the alleged Pakistani support for insurgency (from the East Pakistan) ceased to exist but the insurgency still continued and continues to this day.

From the point of view of realpolitik, it would seem that Pakistan and Myanmar should share common interests. But moves are already in place to weaken this possible nexus. The recent upsurge of the Rohingya Muslim minority issue is obviously detrimental to this nexus as it would create distance between the two potential allies. This is part of the great game played in the South Asia.